By Thomas B. Edsall
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 19, 2005; Page A04

John W. Wilhelm, president of the hotel workers union, is telling colleagues that he is committed to challenge John J. Sweeney for the presidency of the AFL-CIO, according to sources close to him.

Wilhelm, his allies said, does not yet have the votes to prevent Sweeney, 70, from winning another term.

Sweeney remains popular and well liked, even by his critics within organized labor. For Wilhelm to succeed, his supporters said, other union presidents will have to be convinced first that major changes in the AFL-CIO are necessary to stanch the steady loss of union members, and second that a leadership change is necessary if the institution is to be successfully restructured.

The outcome of AFL-CIO executive council discussions early next month about proposals to revamp the organization is widely viewed as crucial to determining the viability of a Wilhelm bid.

Sweeney, first elected in 1995 as an insurgent promising to restore labor's strength, will outline to the executive council his plans to reverse the steady decline of organized labor at the meeting in Las Vegas in March. In doing so, Sweeney will, in effect, be making the case that he should be elected to a new term, according to labor sources.

Sweeney, according to spokeswoman Denise Mitchell, would not agree to an interview. "I don't think he is going to talk about speculation," she said.

Under Sweeney, organized labor's political clout has been significantly strengthened, with boosted voter turnout among union households and high Democratic vote margins among union members going to the polls. Union membership, however, has continued to erode as a percentage of the workforce.

Last month, the Labor Department reported that only 12.5 percent of the workforce is unionized, and that in the private sector, unionization had fallen to just 7.9 percent, one of the lowest levels of the past century.

Even in the public sector, where labor has had most of its success, the percentage of workers represented by unions fell from 37.2 percent in 2003 to 36.4 percent last year.

Wilhelm declined to discuss the AFL-CIO presidency. Other union sources said, however, that he will run if he has a shot at winning.

Among the unions likely to support a Wilhelm candidacy are the Service Employees International Union, the Teamsters and the Laborers, along with Unite Here, the new union formed by the merger of Wilhelm's Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees with the Union of Needletrades, Textiles and Industrial Employees. Other unions that have signaled interest in a Wilhelm bid are the United Food and Commercial Workers and the United Auto Workers. If Wilhelm could line up all these unions, he would still need to get additional backing to reach a majority vote.

Sweeney, who was once president of SEIU, the service employees union, said earlier that he already has enough commitments to defeat a challenger. Among the unions backing him are the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the Communications Workers, the Machinists and Aerospace Workers, and many smaller unions opposed to calls for forced mergers.

At the Las Vegas meeting, the executive council will take up various proposals to change the structure of the AFL-CIO.

Andrew L. Stern, president of SEIU and a Wilhelm ally, has outlined what is probably the most radical approach. Stern would empower the AFL-CIO to require the merger of unions representing workers in the same sector -- such as health care, construction or transportation -- to be able to bargain with more strength with large corporations that are themselves the results of mergers.

In addition, Stern has called for cutting union dues to the AFL-CIO in half, with member unions taking the $40 million to $45 million that they would have otherwise paid in dues to use for organizing campaigns and for the development of formal alliances with foreign unions to bargain effectively with global firms.

Other unions have proposed similar, if less venturesome, plans, all of which will be discussed in Las Vegas.

In addition to strengthening the AFL-CIO's oversight powers and investing more money in organizing new members, many union leaders are convinced they need to take on Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the huge retailer with 2004 earnings of $10.27 billion.

Wal-Mart, they argue, has not only fought off organizing bids, but it has severely weakened unions and pay scales at its competitors and suppliers. Wal-Mart's buying power has been a powerful tool forcing suppliers to lower prices sharply, and the company's own low prices have forced competitors to reduce their own labor costs to survive.